The ESCR's impact on resale in 10002

In this series, I’ve looked at the East Side Coastal Resiliency (ESCR) project, examining the why behind the initiative, people’s reactions, and how it’s tracking. (See the below posts for more detail:)
Scene 33 — 'They Bang Like Crazy'
Scene 34 — Disaster Afoot? Raise the Shoreline
Scene 35 — Says Project, 'Controversial? Who, Me?'
Scene 36 — Nowhere to Hide While We Subside

Today, I’ll wrap the series with a question: What Happens to Property Values Near Major Infrastructure Projects?

That’s what I set out to find, specifically with ESCR in 10002. I analyzed more than 2,800 listings in Manhattan’s 10002 zip code, focusing on units in the three co-ops closest to the ESCR project:

East River Housing Corporation
Hillman Housing Corporation
Seward Park Housing Corporation

I removed listings prior to 2021 to filter out that COVID-19 thing (although, to be honest, the hangover’s still happening).

I then isolated units listed before June 1, 2024 and again after June 2, 2024, tracking shifts in pricing and listing behavior across a meaningful stretch of the ESCR construction timeline.

The goal? To answer: Has the ESCR project influenced resale activity or property values in 10002?

Here’s What I Found:

Only 8 unique units were listed during both periods:

• 3⃣ one-bedrooms

• 4⃣ two-bedrooms

• 1⃣ three-bedroom (or larger)

3 units sold—none above or below ask. All transacted at their final list price. 5 units re-listed without selling—suggesting sellers may be testing the waters or adjusting expectations.

Distribution:

• 7/8 units: East River Housing Co-op

• 1/8: Seward Park

• 0/8: Hillman

Average time between listings: 778 days (2.13 years)

• Range: 159 days (0.44 years) to 1,623 days (4.45 years)

Average re-list price change: –$35,625

• 1BRs: –$5,000

• 2BRs: –$6,000

• 3BR+: –$246,000 (not a typo , but the sample size is small)

How About Some Context?

Not every re-list is a rejection. It might be a refresh, a pause, a reno in progress, or just vibes. We don’t know:

• The condition of each unit

• Seller motivations

• Board rejections

• Financing fall-throughs

• Interest rate chills

Interpretation: Read Between the Listings

Even with a small sample size, a few themes pop:

• Softening prices. Even without definitive sales drops, the re-list trend is gently downhill.

• Seller hesitation. More re-lists than sales = market caution or overconfident pricing.

• Long hold times. These aren’t flippers—they’re folks waiting for just the right moment.

To conclude: These listings don’t tell the full story. The post-COVID market has been a rollercoaster, and from 2021–mid-2024, most were buckled in, waiting for smoother tracks.

Plus, the ESCR project isn’t done yet. Some buyers aren’t down to move into a construction zone , and some sellers may be holding out for the post-project lift.

Me? I’m jazzed about this neighborhood and its prospects. I’m already enjoying the re-opened parts of East River Park. (Catch me there at 6am—yes, 6am—playing baseball with my older son. )

But hype aside, these figures give us an early, data-backed peek at how major infrastructure projects like ESCR ripple through the real estate scene in Lower Manhattan.

We’ll have to wait and see.